An image of a beautiful sunset viewed in a car side mirror.



Pathways to the Future, Rear-view Mirrors, and the Economics of Change

Dave Edyburn, Ph.D.

University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee

Wednesday, September 20, 9:00 - 10:25 am

This session will share insights about the importance of interdisciplinary work during periods of rapid change. Among the topics to be address: 2023 enrollment trends in Colleges of Education, the role of scenarios when trying to make strategic decisions, and how knowledge-based technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning will alter the economics of learning and performance.

The goals of today's conversation are to help faculty and staff answer the following questions:

• Personally and professionally, how do I make sense of technological change?

• What are the immediate, short-term, and long-term implications of these changes?

1. Selected Headlines

1a. World

New headline - How do we feel about global warming? It's called eco-anxiety.

 

1b. State of K-12 Education

Headline - North Carolina desparately needs more teachers.

 

Headline - Montana is struggling to retain new teachers; experts cite waning education graduates.


Headline - People don't want to be teachers anymore. Can you blame them?

Headline - Fueled by teacher shortaes, Zoom in a room makes a comeback.

 

Headline - Cybersecurity a top ed-tech priority.

Headline - The future is STEM but without enough students the US will be left behind.

1c. Higher Education

Headline - US News & Wrold Report rankings are out wiht an altered formula.


Headline - Why is West Virginia University making sweeping cuts?


Headline - Will your college survice the demographic cliff?


Headline - Flagships prosper, while regionals suffer.

Table illustrating the shift in graduate degreess. Computer sicnec is up 19.5 percent. Education is down 3.9%.

Headline - Studens demand endless flexibiltoy - but is it what they need?

1d. Buzzword Bingo (Higher Education version)

An image of a bingo card with buzzwards used in higher education.

Fill Out This Bingo Card During Your First Faculty Meeting of the Year

Buzzword Bingo: The Game We’re All Playing But Nobody Wins

1e. Buzzword Bingo (Corporate version)

A graph of the term Ai used in corporate calls from 2004 to 2003.

Troubling Questions

• What is the future of Colleges of Education?

• Given the extensive teacher shortages, how might schools be re-imagined?

• What technologies are likely to disrupt the work force and the role of education?

2. Looking Ahead While Focused on the Rearview Mirror

Quote - The past is like using your rear-view mirro in the car, it's good to glance back and see how far you've come, but if you stare too long you'll mis what's right in front of you.

3. Making Sense of Change

A set of street signs that say past, present, future.

One of my favorite futurists, Daniel Burrus, makes sense of trends by analyzing how events and technologies may be combined. He describes three approaches:

• incremental change

• convergence change

• disruptive change

Similar to what we did a few mintues ago by looking over some recent news headlines, futurists often study news articles, reports, and web sites to understand the topics being discussed in many areas of the country/world.

In my work, here are some of the trends and issues I have observed.

Table 1: Issues

Table of trends and issues.

Table 2: Technology Trends

Table 2 of trends and issues.

One way to understand these patterns is to create scenarios that describe what the future looks like. I've prepared six scenarios to illustrate how you might use this process to gain insight about why the future might look significantly different than the past.

Scenario #1: Learning Loss

learning loss scenario

Scenario #2: Security

security scenario

Scenario #3: Teacher Shortages + Online Learning

teachers shortages + online learning scenario

Scenario #4: Mental Health + Apps

mental health + apps scenario

Scenario #5: Equity + Accountability + Learning Loss + Machine Learning + Learning Analytics

scenario based on equity + accountability + learning loss + machine learning + learning analytics

Scenario #6: Remote Learning + Space Utilization + Immersive Environments + Personalized Learning

scenario based on remote learning + space utilization + immersive environments + personalized learning

Resource: Chapter Reprint

Edyburn, D. (2023). Reimagining the future of special education technology. In D. Cockerham, R. Kaplan-Rakowski, W. Foshay, & M. Spector (Eds.) Reimagining education: Studies and stories for effective learning practices in an evolving digital society (pp. 281-292). Springer. PDF

4. Follow the Money and Notice How the Rules Change

headline - economics is all about disruption.

add.

6. Discussion

An image of the letters Q and A signifying time for questions and answers.

• Created by Dave Edyburn •